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US long term unemployment
Economist Mark Thoma has a posted a graph of long (6 months plus) unemployment in the US. The graph has two striking, and worrying, features.
There is a very clear sharp spike over the last year and a half (the data runs to September this year). This obviously casts doubt on the recovery that is apparently now underway in the US. The continued rise in unemployment strengthens the argument that the rise in GDP (and the strong performance of stock markets) is driven by quantitative easing (printing money) that has not succeeded in stimulating the real economy, and is therefore unsustainable.
If the immediate worry is not enough for you, take a look at the long term trend. It is very clear that it has been going consistently upward over the 60 year period that the graph covers. This is a sign of a weakening economy. High unemployment is a waste of resources, and implies failures somewhere (in education, is just one possibility). Something has clearly been going badly wrong over the last twenty years, and this does not bode well for the US economy in the long term.
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