House prices up in some regions

graeme at 7:39 a.m. Mon 02 Nov 2009

Hometrack’s latest house price survey shows prices up 0.2% over the previous month, but, not only is this a small increase, but price rises were concentrated in parts of the country (15% of postcodes).

The rises in the Southeast appears to reflect government intervention in the economy. A lot of of money has been pumped into the financial sector, which naturally has the greatest benefits in London and the Southeast. There were rises in the Southwest and the West Midlands as well.

Prices remained stable in most regions, with actual prices falls occurring in only a few places.

The Hometrack survey is just that: the numbers are based on a survey of estate agents, so the data is much less complete than the Land Registry House Price Index, which showed a bigger rise (0.9%) in September, but an identical annual change (down 5.6%). The Halifax survey and others issued by mortgage lenders are also less susceptible to selection bias than the Hometrack survey, but they are subject to their own biases.

The recent numbers are encouraging, but house prices remain high relative to incomes, and could certainly fall much further if the recession continues or if interest rates rise too fast.

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