UBM: declines on track

graeme at 9:40 a.m. Sat 07 Nov 2009

United Business Media’s trading statement released yesterday confirmed that continued declines should be expected for the rest of the current year.

It is worth looking back to the first half results, which showed continued declines despite favourable foreign exchange movements: if CER numbers had been disclosed we would have seen an even worse underlying trend. The main declines were:

The company did increase the interim dividend 7.1%, and, given that the trading statement says:

Since we reported UBM’s Interim results in July, trading has been in line with our expectations. We anticipate that UBM’s full year earnings for 2009 will be in line with market expectations.

it is probable that there will be a similar increase in the full year dividend.

Like many cyclical businesses, UBM expects a recovery in 2010, but it is worht remembering that the print magazines are in long term decline anyway.

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