Gold: back to the 70s

graeme at 7:31 a.m. Thu 19 Nov 2009

The Big Picture has an interesting chart of the gold price vs US treasury bonds.

The chart looks very similar to the last peak, and there are similarities in circumstances too.

Three decades inflation means gold has still cheaper in real terms than it was at the last peak. This can be interpreted as showing there is room for further appreciation, or as showing that some people could have held gold since then and still made a real terms loss.

There are also huge amounts of gold held as a reserve of value: people hold gold because they expect it to appreciate, rather than because it can generate cash flows, or is otherwise utility enhancing. This means that price declines can be very steep when people lose confidence in it: as has been happening with property.

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